• Texas’ 22nd District (Southeast Houston and southern suburbs — Sugar Land, Pearland, part of Pasadena)
2006: Nick Lampson (D) 52%, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs write-in (R) 42%
None of the 30 districts that the Democrats won from the Republicans in 2006 voted more strongly for Bush in 2004 than Texas 22, the longtime stronghold of Tom DeLay. Lampson, who represented somewhat different turf in the House from 1997 through 2004, was greatly abetted in 2006 by the downfall of the former House majority leader, who resigned under a barrage of ethics controversies, and a ballot snafu that forced Sekula-Gibbs to run an unlikely write-in campaign.
Are you kidding me? Mr. Lampson is only renting this seat. Yes, Mr. Lampson "was greatly abetted in 2006 by the downfall of" Tom DeLay. But what caused that? It was because thousands and thousands of Republican voters just like me refused to vote for a corrupt guy. Mr. DeLay knew he couldn't win when there still was Republican division after his narrow primary victory. Look, I am a reliable Republican voter. I've voted Democrat less than five times in my life. As long as the Republicans nominate someone who isn't saddled with ethical, moral or legal baggage, I'm voting for the Elephant before the Donkey. So to get my vote, the Republicans basically need to nominate someone from outside of Sugar Land.
Dr. Sekula Gibbs would have easily won this seat if she were on the ballot against Lampson. She came within ten percentage points of an unlikely victory in a write-in campaign.
I'd rate this seat "Leans Republican". The only reason that I don't think it is "Probable Republican" is that I still harbor some doubts that the local party will insist on a clean candidate. They still don't seem to know what happened in 2006.